3 reasons Arkansas beats Ole Miss (and why the won’t)

With the loss to Texas A&M, the Hogs go into Oxford, MS with 3 straight losses. The losses to BYU and LSU felt like self-inflicted blemishes, but Texas A&M completely rocked Arkansas in Arlington.

Now the Razorbacks face red-hot Ole Miss after a shootout win versus LSU. It might feel like a lost cause hoping for a win this Saturday but here we’ll go over three reasons why Arkansas wins this game (and one why they won’t).

Ole Miss’ soft defense

Lane Kiffin and the Rebels’ (or Black Bears’, or Landsharks’, who knows anymore) offense is one of the top offenses in CFB. Their defense, on the other hand, is underwhelming. Ole Miss ranks No. 112 nationally in passing defense, giving up nearly 263 ypg. They’ve been much more successful at stopping the run, however. But Ole Miss is still middle of the pack at No. 58. On average they give up 152 ypg rushing.

For reference, LSU’s defense is quite similar to Ole Miss. LSU is No. 108 in pass defense and 66 in rushing defense. Arkansas had a decent time moving the ball versus the Tigers. So naturally, one would think the Hogs could move it against Ole Miss. The key will be getting a fast start on offense.

Ole Miss punt return defense

Only one team in the country gives up more yards on punt returns than Ole Miss. They rank No. 129 in the FBS at defending the punt. On average, Ole Miss gives up 21.75 yards per return. Fortunately, for Mississippi, the offense is hardly ever forced to punt.

If/when Arkansas forces a punt, they will have an excellent chance to bring one back for a touchdown. Isaiah Sategna has been a game-changer on punt return. He can cut on a dime, he’s explosive, and he can break one loose against any team in the country. He almost brought a kickoff back against the Aggies, hurdling the last defender in his way, but lost control of the ball out of bounds before he could make his way to the endzone.

#NewProfilePic pic.twitter.com/sT7aPmANYz

— Isaiah Sategna (@isaiahsategna1) October 2, 2023

KJ Jefferson returning to Mississippi

The Sardis, MS native grew up just a stone’s throw away from Oxford. Games against either Mississippi school are personal for Jefferson, but the game against Ole Miss seems to be even bigger to him. In 2021, Jefferson went toe-to-toe with the soon-to-be 94th overall pick of the NFL draft, Matt Coral, but lost in a shootout 52-51 . The next year, KJ laid down a 42-27 beating against Ole Miss in Fayetteville.

Now, he returns to Mississippi for his personal tie-breaking game and something to prove after a bad start to the season. Couple that with the trend of wild night games in Oxford, and it could be the perfect recipe for an upset on Saturday.

One reason they won’t win

To this writer, it’s simple: play calling. To bring home a win, the game will most likely have to be a shootout of sorts, and bland, slow, and predictable play calling won’t do the trick.

The offensive line has struggled mightily this season. Yet, the play calling has done anything but help the big guys up front be successful. Enos tends to run on first and second downs, and then throw to get out of third and long. If the fans can predict it, certainly opposing defensive coordinators can, too. The OL has had a hard time blocking because the opposing front seven doesn’t have to read the play, and then react. They have a pretty good guess of what Arkansas is going to do. If Dan Enos doesn’t start passing early and winning on first and second down, it will be a long night for the Hogs.

If Arkansas can do things to take pressure off the offensive line by moving the pocket and calling short, quick passes/screens, they should have success moving the football. And for Pete’s sake, call a QB sneak on short yardage plays. It’s a pride thing. The OL is demoralized because the offensive staff is essentially saying they don’t believe in them enough to move one yard. Let them try to earn back their pride.

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