New Years Six or Bowl Game Whiff: 5 Dream/Disaster Scenarios for the Hogs

FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. — With back-to-back bowl wins, Razorback football is playing at it’s highest level in over a decade. 16 wins over the last two seasons are the most by the Hogs over a two year span since the 2010 and 2011 seasons. Could they be on the way to their third straight bowl game win for the first time in the team’s history, or will the fans experience another season of the Heartbreak Hogs? 

The Razorbacks are returning valuable veteran leadership on both sides of the ball, headlined by KJ Jefferson, Raheim “Rocket” Sanders, Beaux Limmer, and Hudson Clark, to name a few. 

However, it’s also worth considering the impact that the changes to the coaching staff may have on this team. Will the team be able to adapt, or will the learning curve bury their season before it has an opportunity to begin? Each beaming positive with this team seems to be followed by a large, looming question mark that could spell disaster for them.

Media Predictions

Writers and analysts at ESPN, Athlon Sports, Sports Illustrated, and many others have comfortably placed the Arkansas Razorbacks in the realm of 6-6 and 7-5. A deeper look shows some not-so-friendly projections for their conference record. These projections seem fairly bizarre when you consider the state of the SEC this season, as well as the team that the Hogs will be fielding this fall. 

With the projections sitting at where they’re at, let’s take a look at 5 dream and disaster scenarios for the 2023 Arkansas Razorbacks. For the sake of these lists, we won’t be including injury scenarios. Each team will face these issues, so they won’t warrant a place here. 

Dream Scenarios

1. Hogs sweep trophy games and take 4/6 SEC west games

The first 3 seasons of Sam Pittman’s tenure have been somewhat split in the character of their wins. In 2021, he led his team to a perfect record in trophy games, bringing home the trifecta with wins against Texas A&M, LSU, and Missouri. The 2022 season, however, saw the Hogs lose each of these games. 

Are there explicit implications that come into play with trophy games like these? Rarely. Although, these games do mean a little more for the players involved, the fans watching, and any potential recruit that wants to win rivalry games at the next level. A sweep of the Southwest Classic Trophy (Texas A&M), the Golden Boot (LSU), and the Battle Line Rivalry Trophy (Missouri) could play well into the Hogs mindset through this season, as well as any recruit’s favor in the direction of a commitment. 

Beyond these games, the Hogs are facing a division loaded with uncertainty in its last year before disseminating into one SEC mega-conference. Each team seems to have its own question marks. Whether that’s uncertainty surrounding a coaching change or who the starting quarterback may be, the conference seems to be entering a year in which it is less top-heavy than it may usually be. If the Razorbacks want to leave the division on a high note, they’ll need to take advantage of any opposing team’s lingering question marks. 

2. Secondary makes a significant leap 

This shouldn’t be a surprise to anybody who was familiar with the team’s secondary last year. This group finished dead last in not just their conference, but the entirety of FBS football. An average of 294.7 passing yards/game made games brutal to watch, and put a lot of pressure on the offense to perform well when opposing teams were able to pass anywhere they wanted. 

Depth seemed to be the biggest issue last season. Enough of an issue, actually, that freshman wide receiver Quincey McAdoo made the move across the line to cornerback to finish the season. To the surprise of many, McAdoo became a very consistent defender for the Razorbacks. 

This season, the Hogs have added some heavy hitters in the transfer portal and brought in co-defensive coordinator Marcus Woodson, who excels in his development and recruiting at these positions. Any improvement from the bottom of the league is a dream for this Razorback team, and Woodson seems to have his guys armed to do well. 

3. Presence in conference and nation-wide awards for deserving players

Last season it was Drew Sanders earning a spot on an All-American team that caught national attention. The year before, it was Grant Morgan winning the Burlsworth Trophy. Add to that a handful of All-SEC player nods and other acknowledgments. On a national level, the Razorbacks are establishing a presence with their player development and performance.

Already, we’ve seen players like KJ Jefferson and Rocket Sanders headline preseason All-SEC honors. Among these we’ve also seen players added to preseason watch lists for a number of awards. This includes: KJ Jefferson (Maxwell, Davey O’brien, Manning awards), Rocket Sanders (Maxwell), Dwight McGlothern (Bronko Nagurski), and Beaux Limmer (Outland, Rimington awards).

It is worth noting that while KJ Jefferson and Rocket Sanders are not on Heisman watch lists, many analysts and members of the media consider them to be dark-horse candidates for the award. A Razorback player has never won the Heisman award. 

Continued appearances among the nation’s best could bode very well for high school and transfer portal recruiting. This would be huge for the Razorbacks to continue to show their ability to develop players and spot talent. 

4. Transfer portal continues to present hidden gems

The arrival of the transfer portal continues to change the game year-by-year, and despite how many may feel about it, it looks like it’s here to stay. How could it impact the Hogs, though? Let’s look at a couple different position groups that could benefit the most:

Defensive Backs

As we saw before, the secondary was in desperate need of some repair going into this season. The Hogs have attempted to patch things up by adding through the transfer portal. The holes left by outgoing transfers Jalen Catalon and Myles Slusher have been filled by Jaheim Singletary, Alfahiym Walcott, and Lorando “Snaxx” Johnson, among others. These guys will have all eyes on them this season.

Wide Receivers

After seeing 5 of their top 6 receivers move on after last season, the Hogs had a lot of ground to make up. Rather than rely on young talent alone, they added a committee of transfers from multiple levels of the portal. Isaac Teslaa, Tyrone Broden, and Andrew Armstrong will look to carry the load left behind. While each has proven themselves in smaller spheres of college football, the SEC is a different beast and they face a new set of challenges. However, should they adapt and succeed, we may see KJ Jefferson have two 800+ yard receivers for the first time in his career. 

Defensive Line

Last year, the Razorbacks defensive line was the most productive pass-rushing attack in the SEC, totaling a team record 42 sacks. With Jordan Domineck and Isaiah Nichols transferring out, Anthony “Tank” Booker and Trajan Jeffcoat will headline the incoming class of D-Linemen. The coaching staff has raved about this squad through fall camp, and many seem to believe they will be among the best in the SEC, if not the country, this season. 

5. New Years 6 and a double-digit win season

Many preseason projections have the Hogs earning a spot in bowl games like the Music City Bowl or the Gator Bowl. While some fans would be happy to see that happen, most wouldn’t. Welcome to the Sam Pittman era. The expectation to simply “not lose enough to make a bowl game” isn’t there anymore. There is a strong expectation to make a bowl game, at this point.

Although, as much as we’d love to see them play in the Reliaquest Bowl, or even the Orange Bowl, there may be a higher ceiling for the Razorbacks. These are dream scenarios, after all. If the Hogs leave non-conference play 4-0 (as they are expected to) and win their home/neutral site games, they could split a tough road schedule and still end the season with double digit-wins. 

This is easier said than done, but the conference will only get more difficult with the additions of Oklahoma and Texas next year, and time is running out with KJ and Rocket. With these two at the center of one of the most talented Razorback teams we’ve seen in recent history, they could be scratching at the door of a berth into the Cotton, Fiesta, or Peach Bowls this year. 

Disaster Scenarios

1. Any coaching question marks

With a revamped staff, Sam Pittman has assembled a crew of guys that have seen success in their careers. Travis Williams and Marcus Woodson share a brunt of responsibility as Co-Defensive Coordinators and Ben Sowders has joined the staff as Strength and Conditioning Coach. The coach whose arrival has been anticipated the most is returning Offensive Coordinator Dan Enos. 

Enos returns after nearly a decade removed from his post with the Razorbacks. His 2015 squad was extraordinarily effective, ranking among the best in the nation. His offensive style should suit the offensive weapons on the team well, and he has a well-established history developing passers. He should be a welcome sight to fans who grew tired and frustrated with Kendal Briles’ inconsistent play-calling. 

It seems only fair to have a few looming questions with entirely different decision makers, but for some, the questions seem to surround Sam Pittman. Despite his success, many fans and analysts seem to wonder whether his surprising 9-4 season was a sign of things to come or a fluke. Responding with a “disappointing” 7-6 season only digs further into that uncertainty for these people. All eyes are on the Head Hog this year to see if he can prove he belongs in the top seat instead of the hot seat. 

2. Trouble in the trenches

Pittman’s 30 years as an Offensive Line Coach seems to have been to the benefit of his previous Razorback offenses. His ability to spot and coach talented offensive lineman has resulted in one of the safest pockets in the SEC for his quarterbacks. In each of his years as head coach, Pittman has seen multiple of his offensive linemen earn All-SEC nods, among other honors. 

As strong as that squad has been in the past, there’s also been a concern surrounding their ability to maintain that level of play through an entire season. Even more concerning this season could be the lack of experience that this group used to flaunt. The only returning starters will be Beaux Limmer and Brady Latham. Supplementing them will be transfer Joshua Braun and a plethora of highly ranked recruits. 

This squad has all the tools to perform well. They’ll need to show that they can perform against SEC-level talent and keep their QB out of trouble, otherwise we may see a very mobile KJ Jefferson this year. 

3. Any ONE non-conference loss

This may seem like a bit of an extreme, but a closer look at the schedule reveals a list of very winnable non-conference games. Early season games against Western Carolina, Kent State, and BYU will give the team ample opportunity to mesh with their new coaches and find chemistry. The latter of those 3 presents the biggest challenge, but for a Razorback team that has improved while BYU seems to have regressed, this game should be marked as a W. 

The team then closes out their schedule with a late season matchup against Florida International, another matchup that heavily favors the Hogs as they look to close out their season. 

A loss to any of these teams would have major postseason implications, and could have lasting effects heading into the toughest stretch of their season. Anything less than 3-0 heading into LSU in week 4 could have the Razorbacks reeling for the next few games, and a late season loss to FIU could be devastating to any potential success the team has this season. 

4. Return of the Heartbreak Hogs

The Razorbacks have been effective in keeping games close the last few years, whether they mean to or not. The issue, however, is that they seem to have trouble closing them out. Over the last 3 seasons, they have more losses of 3 points or less than any other team in the country, with eight.

In fact, 4 of those losses came last season, which will only frustrate Hog fans at the idea that they were just a few points from an 11-win season, rather than a 7-win letdown. Part of the problem in allowing games to stay so close has been the team’s inability to close in rezone situations, though we should see a vast improvement under the play-calling of Dan Enos. 

The difference between success and failure for the Hogs is a field goal. If they can close out close games, we may be singing “Hard to be Humble” over and over this year. If not, then we’ll find ourselves being humbled… over and over. 

A return to the devastation of the “Heartbreak Hogs” would be a hard hit to the culture that has been developed the last few years. 

5. Bowl season from the couch

While it’s fun to dream about New Year’s bowl games, it’s also a good dose of reality to recognize that the Hogs were only one loss from missing a bowl game entirely. Had that happened, things may look very different this year, but that’s another story. 

While it’s hard to look at an upcoming season with anything less than sheer full-force optimism, it’s rare that a season plays out the way we all expect it to. Like I said, expectations for the Hogs are a bowl game, at minimum. But if we see them fail to meet that mark, the Head Hog’s seat suddenly gets a lot warmer. Not hot yet, but warm. 

A few mistakes here and there, some injuries (as we’re all familiar with), and a few too many ticks in the loss column and the Arkansas Razorbacks could find themselves on their couches for bowl season. Let’s hope it doesn’t get to that point.