Razorbacks Week 4 ESPN FPI Check in

ESPN has released their Football Power Index (FPI) rankings following week 3 of the 2023 college football season. The list was headlined by Ohio State and Oklahoma, followed closely by Georgia and Alabama, despite some worrying performances from the latter two teams. 

Where are the Hogs ranked? 

ESPN has the Razorbacks sitting at 13th out of 14 teams in the SEC with an FPI score of 5.4 points above average. While that seems like a bit of a dim outlook, the SEC is still a powerhouse (despite the fact that it seems to be in a shocking state this season), which means that the Hogs might not be as bad off as the numbers might indicate. All SEC teams (outside of Vanderbilt) are ranked 42nd or higher overall. 

The Hogs are placed at 42nd in the country, locked in right behind Kentucky and Missouri in 40th and 41st. The index projects Arkansas will win 5.3 games overall, as well as granting them a 43.8 percent chance of winning 6 games. 

One shocking statistic to take note of is that the schedule Arkansas has played already ranks 121st in the country in Strength of Schedule (SOS), while their remaining schedule ranks 2nd in the country in SOS. 

Offensive/Defensive Efficiency

The Razorbacks overall efficiency is rated at a 50.1, enough to land them a ranking of 76th in the country. What makes that so interesting is the differences in their offensive and defensive efficiency ratings. 

Offensively, the team has posted its worst efficiency rating since Chad Morris was the Head Coach in 2019. Their rating of 33.6 is frustratingly close to the 2019 squad’s 31.9. If we omit the Chad Morris years, that is their worst rating since the stat has been recorded. They narrowly escaped the bottom ranking in the SEC in this regard, placing 98th in the country, just 1.6 points higher in their efficiency rating than Vanderbilt (99th overall).

On the other side of the ball, this Arkansas defense has been solid, earning their highest rating since 2014 and their 4th highest on record. A 68.1 rating places them 44th in the country and near the middle of the SEC. 

Looking ahead to LSU

This Saturday, the Razorbacks will travel to Baton Rouge to take on the LSU Tigers, who are the 3rd ranked team in the SEC. While the Tigers have the same overall record as the Hogs, their numbers look quite a bit different.

There will definitely be some interesting matchups coming into this matchup, namely the LSU offense v.s. the Arkansas defense. Despite the defensive efficiency metrics, Arkansas’ defense has actually performed better than their rating, ranking in the top 3 in a vast number of statistical categories in the SEC. 

What do the metrics mean? 

According to ESPN:

“The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. 

FPI:Football Power Index that measures team’s true strength on net points scale; expected point margin vs average opponent on neutral field.

SOS:Rank among all FBS teams of games already played schedule strength, from perspective of an average Top 25 team.

SOR:Strength of Record rank. Reflects chance that an average Top 25 team would have team’s record or better, given the schedule.

GC:Game Control rank. Reflects chance that an average Top 25 team would control games from start to end the way this team did, given the schedule.

OVERALL EFF:Net efficiency on 0-100 scale; incorporates offense, defense and special teams efficiencies into a single schedule-adjusted measure of per-play efficiency.

OFFENSE EFF:Offensive efficiency on 0-100 scale; based on offense’s contribution to scoring margin on per-play basis, adjusted for strength of opposing defenses faced.

OFFENSE EFF:Offensive efficiency on 0-100 scale; based on offense’s contribution to scoring margin on per-play basis, adjusted for strength of opposing defenses faced.

SPECIAL TEAMS EFF:Special teams efficiency on 0-100 scale; based on special teams’ contribution to scoring margin on per-play basis, adjusted for strength of opposing special teams faced. “