Razorbacks’ Week 5 ESPN FPI Check in

Despite adding another tally to the loss column, the Arkansas Razorbacks fared well in this week’s ESPN FPI ratings. Ohio State and Oklahoma remained in the top spots, while Georgia fell to 5th overall. 

Where are the Hogs Ranked? 

The Razorbacks made the jump from 13th in the SEC to 10th, passing Mississippi State, Missouri, and Kentucky. Interestingly enough, Kentucky and Missouri have remained undefeated, making them 2 of the only 3 teams left in the SEC with such a record. The only other team is Georgia, the current #1 team in the country, according to AP voters. 

The Hogs performance against LSU this week also boosted them from 42nd in the country to 34th. Their FPI rating went from 5.4 points above average to 7.6. This places them directly behind SEC opponents South Carolina, Auburn, and Florida. The latter 2 of which are trending downward in their ratings. 

Despite their favorable outing, they remain at a projected win total of 5.7 games. However, ESPN now gives them a 54.8% chance of winning 6 games and earning bowl eligibility, an 11% increase from last week’s projections. 

Offensive/Defensive Efficiencies

The team’s overall efficiency rating saw a boost from 50.1 to 60.9, taking them up 24 spots from 76th to 52nd in the country. It becomes more impressive when you consider that this jump came against one of the SEC’s best, the LSU Tigers. This still only lands them the 12th position in the SEC when it comes to overall efficiency. 

Perhaps the largest reason for such an increase was their increased offensive efficiency. The team bounced back from being the 98th ranked offense to the 55th ranked offense in the country. The 43 spot leap came as a result of the team improving their efficiency rating from 33.6 to 53.4. The Hogs sit at 9th in offensive efficiency, just ahead of Alabama. 

On the other side of the ball, things took a small dip. Arkansas slid from a 68.1 to 62.7 defensive efficiency rating. The 5.4 point drop takes them down 5 spots in the national rankings to 49th overall. This isn’t surprising considering that their most recent matchup came against the Tigers. Their 91.2 offensive efficiency rating puts them at 4th in the country. The Hogs maintain the 9th spot in the SEC here, as well. 

Looking ahead to Texas A&M

This week, the Hogs will travel to AT&T Stadium to play against Texas A&M. The Aggies have fared much better in FPI rankings among other metrics. They go into this game 3-1, with their lone loss coming against the #18 Miami Hurricanes. 

Texas A&M v.s. Arkansas brings about the first matchup for the Hogs against former Head Coach Bobby Petrino since the 2022 season, when Petrino’s Missouri State gave the Razorbacks quite a scare at home. Petrino holds the Aggies’ Offensive Coordinator position, but we should expect him to make the most of any opportunities against the Hogs this weekend. 

What do the metrics mean? 

According to ESPN:

“The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. 

FPI:Football Power Index that measures team’s true strength on net points scale; expected point margin vs average opponent on neutral field.

SOS:Rank among all FBS teams of games already played schedule strength, from perspective of an average Top 25 team.

SOR:Strength of Record rank. Reflects chance that an average Top 25 team would have team’s record or better, given the schedule.

GC:Game Control rank. Reflects chance that an average Top 25 team would control games from start to end the way this team did, given the schedule.

OVERALL EFF:Net efficiency on 0-100 scale; incorporates offense, defense and special teams efficiencies into a single schedule-adjusted measure of per-play efficiency.

OFFENSE EFF:Offensive efficiency on 0-100 scale; based on offense’s contribution to scoring margin on per-play basis, adjusted for strength of opposing defenses faced.

OFFENSE EFF:Offensive efficiency on 0-100 scale; based on offense’s contribution to scoring margin on per-play basis, adjusted for strength of opposing defenses faced.

SPECIAL TEAMS EFF:Special teams efficiency on 0-100 scale; based on special teams’ contribution to scoring margin on per-play basis, adjusted for strength of opposing special teams faced. “

Thank you for reading Hawg Country!

For more Arkansas Athletics coverage from Hawg Country follow us on Twitter @HawgCountry_FR. You can also subscribe to our YouTube Channel @HawgCountry.

For feedback, questions, concerns, or to apply for a writing position, please email our publisher [email protected]. Also, because of your support we have become one of the fastest-growing and most influential Razorback media outlets there is!

Subscribe HERE!