Razorbacks Week 6 ESPN FPI Check in

ESPN has released their Football Power Index (FPI) rankings following week 6 of the 2023 college football season. The list was headlined by Ohio State and Oklahoma, followed closely by Alabama and Georgia. 

Where are the Hogs ranked? 

The Razorbacks come into this week ranked 32nd with a 7.6. This places them 4 spots higher than last week, and the highest they’ve been all season. Their efforts have landed them at 8th in the SEC, also their best of the year. 

The Hogs passed Missouri and Kentucky, both of whom lost their undefeated status this week against Georgia and LSU. Arkansas also ranks just ahead of Florida and South Carolina, each of whom are ranked 34th and 36th, respectively. Of course, each SEC team has placed 50th or higher, except for Vanderbilt, who comes in at 103rd.

In their current stretch of 4 losses, the Razorbacks have dropped to a 44% chance of reaching 6 wins and earning a bowl game. If they fail to reach that mark, it will be the first time in Sam Pittman’s tenure that they will not receive an invite to a postseason matchup.

Offensive/Defensive Efficiency

Arkansas’ overall efficiency maintains its rating around 60, with a 60.4. This puts them at 49th overall and 12th out of 14 in the SEC. Yet again, it’s a tale of two sides on the coin that is the Arkansas Razorbacks. 

Defensively, their squad continues to excel. They earned a defensive efficiency rating of 72.2, placing them 28th overall and 6th in the SEC. This is the highest rating for the Hogs’ defense since the metric has been recorded. This is even more impressive when you consider that the Hogs last 3 matchups have been against 3 of the top 5 teams in the SEC in offensive efficiency. 

On the other side of the ball, things look much worse. The Razorbacks’ offensive efficiency has continued to settle near the bottom of the SEC with a rating of 41.1. That rating earns them a spot at 86th nationally, and 12th out of 14th in the SEC. They rank only ahead of Auburn and Vanderbilt. 

The special teams unit has also been consistent, their biggest blotch being a punt that was returned for a touchdown by A&M against them. They scored a 60.9, putting them at 36th in the country, ranking 5th in the SEC. 

Looking ahead to Alabama

This week’s matchup will be Arkansas’ most difficult yet, with Alabama coming in 5-1, their lone loss coming against #9 Texas. Alabama is coming into this game following a gritty win against Texas A&M.

What do the metrics mean? 

According to ESPN:

“The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. 

FPI:Football Power Index that measures team’s true strength on net points scale; expected point margin vs average opponent on neutral field.

SOS:Rank among all FBS teams of games already played schedule strength, from perspective of an average Top 25 team.

SOR:Strength of Record rank. Reflects chance that an average Top 25 team would have team’s record or better, given the schedule.

GC:Game Control rank. Reflects chance that an average Top 25 team would control games from start to end the way this team did, given the schedule.

OVERALL EFF:Net efficiency on 0-100 scale; incorporates offense, defense and special teams efficiencies into a single schedule-adjusted measure of per-play efficiency.

OFFENSE EFF:Offensive efficiency on 0-100 scale; based on offense’s contribution to scoring margin on per-play basis, adjusted for strength of opposing defenses faced.

OFFENSE EFF:Offensive efficiency on 0-100 scale; based on offense’s contribution to scoring margin on per-play basis, adjusted for strength of opposing defenses faced.

SPECIAL TEAMS EFF:Special teams efficiency on 0-100 scale; based on special teams’ contribution to scoring margin on per-play basis, adjusted for strength of opposing special teams faced. “